One certainty about the next four years, no matter how he might plan otherwise, is that President Obama will have to deal with the unexpected. Somewhere, sometime, a crisis will erupt, and he will be called to show quick judgement and order quick action.
I predict one such unexpected moment, sooner than Obama might plan - if you could ever plan for such moment - will come in Cuba.
Fidel Castro will die. Cubans will take to the streets. Or to the rafts. The pressure will be on for the United States to lift the embargo and begin a new era of U.S-Cuban relations.
The thought of Obama being in charge of American policy on Cuba scares the hell out of many Cuban Americans; one even inexplicably has been silenced by the notion.
But if you take Obama at his word - and today of all days, we should take him at his word - you shouldn't fear that when it comes to Cuba, Obama is about to sell the store. Just because he plans to take the sensible, humanitarian step of loosening limits on travel and remittances to the island by Cuban Americans, does not mean is betraying American values or the Cuban people.
Just consider what he said Sunday in an interview with Univision:
Lifting the limits "is a good place to start," Obama said. "It doesn't eliminate the embargo, but it sends the message that we are open to new talks if Cuba is seriously prepared to allow personal freedoms."
Obama is not giving up the fight for Cuban freedom. He is not forgetting about Cuban political prisoners just so American college students have a new beach to visit for spring break.
He is just taking the fight to a new front.
American policy on Cuba should be judged on whether it has helped free the Cuban people. For 50 years, we have tried one strategy, which even on the best days has failed. That Obama, who clearly understands the nature of the enemy in Havana, wants to try something else does not mean he or the U.S. have given up the fight.
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