The European Union has backed off the full-fledged restoration of relations with Havana sought by the government of Spain, unconvinced that the Castro dictatorship has earned a change in treatment.
And the November elections served as a death knell to the longshot notion that the United States was about to lift the ban on most travel to the island, much less relax any other parts of its so-called "embargo."
So since the dictatorship is unlikely to get from the Europe and the United States what it was seeking, why would it go ahead and release the 11 prisoners of conscience covered by a deal it struck with Spain and the Catholic Church — but still in jail after at least two deadlines for their release because of their refusal to take forced overseas exile in exchange for their "freedom"?
What does the regime stand to gain, since Europe and the U.S. have made clear it won't be what it was seeking, ever after it released more than 40 others political prisoners?
The Cuban government understands this, which explains, in part, its continued and increased repression in recent weeks and months of its most fervent opponents. Arrests and detentions and outright assaults on peaceful protesters do not suggest the regime cares to be on its best behavior if there is nothing to gain in return.
Why would the Castro regime target high-profile dissidents like Dr. Darsi Ferrer trying to commemorate International Human Rights Day?
Why would the Castro regime deny Guillermo Fariñas permission to travel to France to receive the EU's top human rights prize, a move that perplexed even the Spanish government, if it was still trying to put on a good face for the world?
Why would the Castro regime tell the family of the most prominent of the 11 prisoners, Dr. Oscar Elias Biscet, be told that his name had been removed off the list of prisoners to be released, if the Castros cared at this point about public perception of its actions and motives?
The only reasonable explanation is that the Castro regime realizes that at this moment, there is no price to pay for acting according to its nature.
No one has said there was an explicit quid pro quo — the release of prisoners in exchange for concessions by foreign powers that would enrich the Castros and/or enhance the stature of their regime.
But when it comes to how it treats political prisoners, the Castro regime has never seen them as anything more than a bargaining chip to get what it is seeking without in exchange any changes in its fundamental actions or nature.
Unfortunately, that makes it more likely the regime will hold on to its chips until the next chance it gets to cash them in for a bigger prize.
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