As a hisorical moment, there is no disputing the profundity of today's announcment of a new era in U.S-Cuban relations.
But for the chatter and debate it has sparked, most have it has failed to address this essential question: How will normalization of relations, and everything that will allow, without first concessions by Havana, free the Cubans of Cuba?
How that is answered -- will a Cuba with relations with Washington build a thriving democracy or will it become another China? -- will ultimately determine the failure or success of the change that is coming.
The interests of the Cuban people were absent from most of today's discussion, instead focusing on less vital questions like the how would the "hard-line" Cubans in Miami react and when could Americans start planning their Varadero beach vacations.
Absent was consideration of how the Obama-Castro thaw would improve the lives of the Cuban people, who for almost 56 years -- because of the Castros and not because of a so-called "embargo" or the lack of normal relations with the U.S. -- have suffered some of the worst oppression and deprivations in history.
Will normalization, as Obama suggested, lead to freedom for the Cuban people? That is really the only question that matters.
In his speech, Obama said he was convinced that greater diplomatic, economic and other engagement between the U.S. and Cuba, and the eventual lifting of the "embargo," would pay off with benefits for the Cuban people, and that that hope was enough open a new era in relations between Washington and Havana. And without the Castro regime making any concessions in return.
Under the Cuban Liberty and Democratic Solidarity (Libertad) Act , or Helms-Burton Act, of 1996 (Helms–Burton Act, the embargo cannont be relaxed until Cuba begins a transition to democracy marked by steps like the release of political prisoners, holding free elections, etc.
Besides freeing American Alan Gross, Cuba did agree to release 53 Cuban political prisoners. But without other steps to guarantee Cubans' basic rights, the regime at any moment could replace them in its jails with others.
Obama said the normalization of relations with the Castro regime will provide a venue for the United States to advocate for the rights of the Cuban people and ultimately a better life for a people who have suffered so much. More hope and change.
The success of what Obama is offering depends too much on the goodwill of the Castro regime, not toward the United States but toward the Cuban people, a quality it had never displayed in the past 56 years.
As much we should hope Obama is right, it is because of that history that we should fear he is wrong.
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